As anyone in the EB-5 space is likely aware by now, Senators Charles Grassley and Patrick Leahy have introduced a bi-partisan bill to amend the EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program.
While the prevailing sentiment in the industry is that the bill will not be passed in its existing form, there is some debate as to whether or not some of the proposed program changes in the bill may be passed and whether the program may be temporarily extended for a shorter time while additional changes are considered.
In light of this, it is worth noting what impact the bill is having on the marketplace. At the time of the last renewal date three years ago, there was some degree of rush to get applications in across the industry, but there were few who doubted that the program would be renewed and there were no proposed changes to the program that anybody was aware of at the time. In addition, at that time, there were far fewer approved regional centers and projects in the marketplace (209 approved regional centers at the end of the 2012 fiscal year versus 949 approved regional centers today). The overall result two years ago was largely that things were business as usual.
This time around, things are a bit different. Because of all the unknowns surrounding the bill, professionals in the industry are largely overwhelmed with the demand to get projects in under the deadline. This activity is currently nearing a peak. Many projects that were closer to being ready have been sped up and already launched into the marketplace.
We are already hearing that many Chinese agents who might normally take on just two or three projects at any given time are now four and five projects deep, some commanding larger fees than usual because of the abundance of offerings. As the industry overall appears to be working hard on getting many other projects to market, we are anticipating that there may be a glut of projects coming up. Marketing activity is expected to reach a frenetic pace in the coming months as agents and other marketers jockey for position and mind share of investors.
On the flip side, this author anticipates that there will be a bit of a lull in the launch of new EB-5 projects into the marketplace following September 30th, as those projects that did not get started in time will be waiting on the sidelines to see what, if anything, changes on the 30th and whether the program will be only temporarily renewed (with only some or no changes), setting a new deadline for the next rush before a second wave of changes comes along.
2016 may prove to be a roller coaster year for EB-5.
Phil Cohen is the founder and President of Strategic Element, a company that focuses on developing regional centers, EB-5 business plans, economic impact reports, feasibility studies and custom 'direct' EB-5 projects for its clients (www.strategicelementconsulting.com).